Robo McDonalds

Here's a commentary that I wrote about a year ago about Robotic McDonalds.  Hope you hate it.

In tomorrow's future, all minimum wage jobs will be replaced with robots.  This isn't pessimism, it’s the truth.  There have been plenty of examples in recent history about just how little corporate America cares about the average person and won’t hesitate to replace more expensive labor with cheaper labor.  McDonald's is no exception.  In fact, McDonalds will probably be run by robots within the next 5 years if they are given the chance.  We send robots to do our exploring on Mars and if robots can explore Mars, they can run a McDonalds.  I don't know when or if it will happen, but this is how it could happen using technology that exists today. 

Chances are most readers have been to a McDonalds recently and have noticed how some key parts of McDonalds have been eerily automated.  When a customer pulls up to the drive through speaker they are not greeted by a person, but rather the recording of a person that is activated automatically by the driver's approach.  Not surprisingly, this recording is often more cheerful then the person actually taking the orders and tries to sell whatever product that the franchise has chosen to push.  A recording is more effective at this task because most people are uncomfortable pushing someone to buy something they don't want (for example: Telemarketers).  This change was made with little fanfare and customers quickly became used to the change.  Another function of the drive through that has been automated is that any drink orders that are entered into the point of sale system are automatically filled by a simple machine requiring only that the drive through person put a lid on and hand the drink out the window.  This is an ingenious switch if you ask me.  Not only do they save labor time but the automated drink system also allows for precise portioning to avoid waste and I would bet many customers don't even notice the difference.  The last bit of automation comes from the McCafe drink system that most McDonalds have now installed.  This system isn't totally automated like the drive through drink system, but the coffee makers can make any espresso drink on the menu with the operator only required to insert the already portioned raw ingredients.  Again, such a system prevents waste and reduces labor time and again, customers don't care, and they don't even notice and would expect that McDonalds would do this.

So you may ask, 'why should I care'?  Because, whether we like it or not, McDonalds is the industry leader in one of the most profitable industries in the world.  Most, if not all, of the fast food restaurants in the world are either copies of McDonalds or a re-hashing of the McDonalds idea.  Whatever McDonalds does, the rest of the industry is likely to follow suit because if McDonalds is doing it, it must make money.  These examples also show that McDonalds is becoming more comfortable with automation and any technology that can reduce human labor can eventually eliminate it (i.e. manufacturing).  The best example of eliminating human labor often sits right outside the front door of McDonalds: RedBox...  I contend that it is only a few years away before RedBox is running the store.

So how do we go from a depressed teenager behind the counter saying 'can I take your order' in the most monotone voice ever to 'RedBox: Food Edition'?  How will the McDonalds of the future work?  Well, let’s run through a drive through transaction at the McDonalds of the future.  Joe Blow is your average McDonalds customer.  He is going to the McDonalds of the future.  Joe's McDonalds is a small building with no windows and maybe only one door.  The outside is brightly decorated with various McDonalds’ propaganda.  He arrives at the drive through menu in his hover car (or whatever).  Joe Blow is greeted by a cheerful recording of a human voice, exactly as he is today.  Joe Blow can immediately begin ordering instead of waiting like he has to today, however it is not a human that is hearing Joe's voice, it is a computer.  This computer, using voice recognition software similar to the software used by automated call centers, is able to take Joe's order.  If it cannot understand a portion of Joe's order, a cheerful voice asks him to repeat himself, just as a normal person would.  Joe's order is shown to him as he orders it on a screen, just like it is today.  A touch system could even be implemented in some situations and would reduce the technology gap and speed up the process (RedBox!).  When Joe is happy with his order, he pulls forward (keeping true to the McDonalds routine).  The next station would collect his money, via cash, credit card or home loan, in the same way that the automated point of sale systems in supermarkets across America do, and give him a second opportunity to change his order if required; just like that person at the 'first drive through window' does.  After Joe has paid, he will again pull forward and a motorized box (similar to Walgreens drive through or drive through banking) will dispense Joe's order and a cheerful voice will thank him, perhaps even through a video screen to offer a pseudo interaction.  Joe drives off satisfied with his food even if he is a bit creeped out by the fact that he didn't talk to a single human being during his entire experience.  What happens on the outside is simple enough because the goal of the McDonalds of the future would be to create as similar of an experience to today's McDonalds as possible.

The inside of the McDonalds of the future is where the REAL fun takes place!  The reason that Joe Blow didn't talk to any humans is because there was only one human inside the McDonalds and that one human is there only for the purpose of supervising and maintaining the machines and for his brain in the limited situations where it's needed.  This one employee's job will be a thankless job, it will be a boring job, but it will pay well because he and the machines are replacing several employees.  So, if this one employee's job will be to sit in a sealed off building and watch machines all day, how will the machines do all of the jobs that are currently performed by McDonalds employees?  Surprisingly, we can find examples of machines doing all the things we need them to do in a McDonalds in today's society!  We can look to companies like Hostess for our examples.  The company that owns the Hostess brand produces massive amounts of baked goods each day through a very exact, automated baking process.  The machines know what they are supposed to make and they make it repeatedly to a very high tolerance.  Different machines have different jobs and the machines can handle the job from raw goods to shipped product without a bit of human interaction.  We don't need that level of production from our McDonalds of the future, but the process is similar. 

The first process we will discuss is inventory.  McDonalds already receives its 'raw goods' in partially prepared forms.  These raw goods are stored and prepared as needed.  A person is required to keep track of inventory and order more raw goods when required.  This can all be automated.  The goods can be stored in three distinct areas: frozen, refrigerated and dry.  They are categorized and stored in the same location every time.  A scanning system will record the arrival of the goods, categorize their storage location, log them in the inventory and a robotic arm will store the goods in their appropriate location.  Goods storage can take up a large amount of space in the store because there need not be room for employees or customers inside of the store, nor does the inside need to be aesthetically pleasing or accessible.  What computers lack in thinking ability, they make up for in precision and memory.  Since the computer scans the inventory as it arrives, it knows exactly how many raw goods are available.  Since it is also preparing all of the products to exact specifications, it knows how much raw goods it is using.  If the computer factors in sales information, it can order more raw goods by itself when needed.  A store manager could even review these inventory requests from home or a mobile phone and approve them.  The computer would also be linked to a McDonalds network so that it would be aware of upcoming promotions and sales or could even review sales data from other McDonalds stores to research trends.  The technologies that would be needed to accomplish these tasks exist today, no future technology would be necessary.

So now we have our raw goods, the next step is production.  Production is the tricky part, at the bare minimum, McDonalds needs three employees for the entire process, and often they use many more.  Truthfully, production requires the most changes in the McDonalds process.  The key would be to turn McDonalds into a 'factory' that 'manufactures' meals.  However, since McDonalds 'demand' is not static, the manufacturing process will need to be dynamic and the system will attempt to produce exactly what is needed without waste.  Customers will already expect that product will be pre-prepared to an extent so the computer can keep some amount of product in a 'holding' state.  Artificial intelligence will also be able to analyze previous hourly trends and adjust production to minimize the amount of product in holding and waste to maximize profit, an act that McDonalds currently doesn't pay its employees enough to perform.  We already discussed what is going on outside, our goal now is to get Joe Blow's order from 'raw goods' to his hands in the shortest and cheapest way possible.  Machines love categorizing, so we will categorize all of McDonalds products.  The initial category is 'shuttle', which is responsible for delivering raw goods from the storage center to the appropriate station.  For the sake of simplicity we will work with these stations: broiler, fryer, drinks, uncooked and non-edible.  There will be a mechanized process for each of these categories and they will meet at the final station: packing/delivery.  Every machine will be able to talk to the others and each machine will have its purpose. 

- The broiling station will be responsible for making burgers or burger-like sandwiches and delivering them to packing.  It will consist of a broiler with three 'hoppers' filled with small patties, quarter pounders and grilled chicken.  As needed, the station will run these through the broiler and station them in holding.  If an item remains in holding for too long, the station can dispense the product into a waste area.  This station can also request fried chicken and fish patties from the fryer station.  When ordered, the station will drop the appropriate bun (also stored in a hopper), deposit the patty(s) onto the bun, dispense specific amounts of condiments as required, cap the sandwich off, wrap it and send to packing.  This can be accomplished through a simple metered production assembly.

- The fryer station would be responsible for French fries and a limited number of sandwiches (chicken/fish) and delivering them to packing.  As French fries are McDonalds signature product, they will be this station's primary responsibility.  This station's secondary responsibility will be frying chicken or fish patties and delivering them to holding in the broiler station.  For French fries, the station dispenses metered amounts of fries into a fryer and drops them. When the frying process is complete, the fries are mechanically dumped into a heated holding area.  From the holding area, they can be metered exactly into specific sizes as needed or, if the product has been in holding for too long, dispose of the product.  After metering fries to their specific sizes, the fries are delivered to packing.

- The drinks section will be responsible for dispensing fountain drinks or milk, preparing coffee drinks and delivering them to packing.  This section requires little explanation because McDonalds has already successfully automated this process.  The only part remaining would be to add a machine to place lids and deliver to packing.

- The uncooked section will be responsible for objects that are either prepackaged or uncooked, like salads.  The primary function of this station would be condiments.  This station would save a huge amount of money over its human counterpart.  Machines do not feel, they do exactly what they are told to do.  This station would dispense an exact amount of condiments each and every time and would not hand out excessive or free condiments.  This is, essentially, a manager's dream.

- The non-edible section will be responsible for utensils, straws, kid’s toys and napkins.  Again, this station would be a major waste reducer as it would only hand out exactly what it was programmed to hand out.

- The packing section will place all order items in appropriate bagging and the delivery station will dispense the product to the customer.  Although each section works independently, all of the product will eventually end up here.  Because the machines know the exact size and shape of every object, it knows exactly how to package the objects with the smallest space possible which again saves waste by using only the packaging materials needed for the products.  A team of robot arms would package the items in a specific programmed way (think Tetris) and fold the bag in a pleasing manner.  Another series of arms would load the product into a tray that would be sent out to the customer to retrieve their product.

All simple enough right?  McDonalds already operates in this manner, except each section is operated by a person.  A person adds a huge number of variables to the situation.  Machines do not have those same variables.  By turning each McDonalds into an over glorified vending machine, I would wager those Robo-McDonalds owners would save money over their human operated counterparts and eventually put the human operated McDonalds out of business; pretty much the same thing that RedBox did to video stores.  I don't think anybody will argue with me that 'hand-made' generally means 'expensive' but does not generally mean 'better'.  Almost all cars on the road are made by machines, hand-made cars are expensive, tend to be quirky and break a lot.  Baked goods made at home aren't welcome at school but schools have no problem with Hostess Twinkies.  The truth is that machines are clean, trustworthy, efficient and cheaper to operate than a human being, hands down and that's why I think that Robo-McDonalds are coming!

So why don't we have Robo-McDonalds yet if the technology exists?  That is a good question.  I would like to think that it's because McDonalds isn't ready to give up human labor yet, but I think we'd be naive to believe that.  In states where customers can pump their own gas, station owners don't employ attendants for the heck of it.  I think that three major issues are causing delays for Robo-McDonalds.

- Infrastructure: Basically the same issues exist as those that keep our society from converting to hydrogen cars.  As one might guess, today's McDonalds would not convert to Robo-McDonalds easily.  Development costs would have to go into creating a Robo-McDonalds prototype, to prove it could work.  Once it was standardized, there would still be the process of removing human operated McDonalds and replacing them with Robo-McDonalds.  This process would take time and a ton of money and that always causes a pause in the corporate world.  The Robo-McDonalds would also be rigid and difficult to change.  If new products were introduced or existing products changed, the McDonalds would have to be 'retooled' to perform the new tasks.

- Interaction: Human-Machine interaction is still very primitive in our society.  Despite attempts to change this, most human-machine interaction takes place through human interface devices such as touch screens, keyboards and mice.  As such, voice recognition systems are problematic without the user training the system to understand the user's particular nuances of each person's voice.  People are also uncomfortable speaking to machines; the concerns and frustrations regarding automated call centers are a testament to this.  If Robo-McDonalds are to succeed, an advanced form of speech recognition would be required and developed for multiple languages.

- Technophobia: Despite the fact that machines could work faster, cleaner and more reliably than human workers, customers would still likely be averse to trusting the machines with their food.  Some customers would be critically adverse to the lack of human interaction with the Robo-McDonalds or even believe that the Robo-McDonalds would become self aware and destroy the world.  Just think, the Robo-McDonalds are launching nukes while yelling 'would you like fries with that?'

- Loss of Jobs: While the corporations would be perfectly happy with laying off their entire workforce, the act could be considered a faux pas amongst customers.  Some consumers still have the naive perception that corporations actually care about people and the act of laying off 99% of your frontline workforce might have a negative effect on that perception.  But then, people embraced RedBox even though it put local movie stores out of business so I could be wrong.  McDonalds employs over 500,000 people in the US alone and if that figure was to be reduced even by half, it would represent a drastic number of jobs lost from just that retailer.

So is Robo-McDonalds our future?  I say it is a certainty.  The technology is there, the will is there and there are plenty of examples of consumers embracing the 'no human' sales experience so long as they save money doing it.  There are even certain fast food restaurants (Sonic!) that are almost doing this exact thing without the robots.  Replacing the 'sit down' environment with robots is much further off than the Robo-McDonalds that we discussed today but technology steps a bit further each day and leaves many of us wondering if there's an innovation just around the corner that will make us obsolete.  There is one thing that technology cannot yet replace: our brains.  Even in the example above, I still needed at least one human to make sure that things ran smoothly.  Robots cannot think, they cannot dispute and they cannot problem solve.  They do what they are told to do and the ones that seem to be thinking can only think as far as they are programmed to think.  As humans, we just have to decide: do we hand over our jobs to RedBox because it's cheaper or do we embrace our history of providing services for each other, no matter the cost?