Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Dark Age of Cars Part 1: Fuel Economy

The Dark Age of Cars is a multi part essay that I completed about 2 years ago about how much the world of cars is dying.  The first section is on the fallacy of higher MPGs.

The race to have the highest miles per gallon rating has been a long time in the making.  Fuel economy has been a big deal ever since the 70s, when it suddenly became cool to be efficient.  The truth is that fuel economy is not the big deal that automaker commercials would lead you to believe.  In fact, I’m going to show exactly how worthless having slightly higher miles per gallon rating is.  Often, the argument for a smaller engine versus a larger engine (usually I-4 vs. V-6) is that the smaller engine will get better fuel economy and save the driver money.  Let’s examine that point.  First subject is the great appliance on wheels: the Toyota Camry.  We will be using an XLE four cylinder model.  The XLE is the top of the line model with 2.5 liter, 169 horsepower engine, 22/32 fuel economy (27 combined) and a base MSRP of $26,125.  Add navigation and leather seats and that price climbs beyond $30,000 easily (don’t forget the often non-negotiable dealer markups), however most Camry buyers would not even flinch at that level of pricing because it’s a Toyota and they must have it, no matter the cost.  The Camry is slow and boring yet continuously garners high praise and is the top selling sedan in the nation precisely because it’s boring and Toyota markets themselves on having high initial quality (which they don’t, 23rd in the nation) and safety (do I really need to say it?).  For the Camry’s competition I will use the Mazda 6.  I am the owner of a 2004 Mazda 6 and I have nothing but compliments for it.  Today’s Mazda 6 is bigger and is a very real competitor for the Camry.  I am going to use the Mazda 6 s touring plus which has almost the exact same standard option package as the Camry XLE and is nearly the same MSRP.  The 6 s has a 3.7 liter V-6 with 272 horsepower, 17/25 fuel economy (21 combined) and an MSRP of $26,600.  The Mazda is critically praised for being a great value, having excellent performance and being sporting, something the Camry cannot claim to be.  The Mazda is also quite larger than the Camry and does have a similar four cylinder option.  Often we are told that we don’t need the horsepower of the V-6 and therefore we should vehicularly castrate ourselves and buy four cylinder models of our cars because they get better fuel mileage and better fuel mileage converts to saving money and using less oil.  Let us explore that argument.  Our drivers are going to average 13,200 over a year (roughly 253 miles a week).  This is quite a bit above the national average but so many miles in one year should be good for the Camry right?  For our cost of a gallon of gas, we will refer to the current (as of 6/22/10) average of $2.70 for a gallon of regular.  To find out how many gallons of gas that each vehicle will need in a year, we’ll divide the 13,200 by each vehicle’s combined fuel mileage.  For the Toyota we get 489 gallons, for the Mazda 628 gallons for a difference of 139 gallons.  That difference is worth $375 dollars a year, or $1,875 over a 5 year life cycle for a person driving 1,100 miles a month.  When blown up to these large proportions, the fuel economy savings start to sound pretty substantial, but if you go the other direction…  That $375 dollars a year converts to $31.25 a month and $1.03 a day.  So, for a little over a dollar a day I can drive a car with 100 more horsepower?  How can I refuse?!  And if you think that the difference in gallons is tangible, take that 139 and divide it into the number of gallons that have spilled into the Gulf of Mexico and see how many cars it would take to equal just that…  If I take the same Camry and compare it to the V-6 Ford Mustang (305 horsepower and 25 combined fuel economy) the MPG argument falls apart even faster.  I can drive a muscle car for less than $1 a day over a four cylinder Camry.  The truth is four cylinder cars are at their limit.  Our emissions and safety requirements add so much weight to the average car that any fuel savings that might be realized by a smaller engine are completely nullified with added weight and exhaust restrictions.  And this isn’t just the case on mid-size sedans like the Camry, it’s happening to compact cars as well.  Just look at the Smart Fortwo, the same car in Europe rates at 50 miles per gallon (U.S.) but here the Smart registers only a 36 in combined miles per gallon, a number that is only about 60% higher than the Mazda 6 even though the Mazda has 300% more horsepower.
            So why does all of this matter?  Because the federal government is issuing higher corporate average fuel economy numbers that must be met by 2020 and these requirements are 35 miles per gallon.  Technically this means that the average fuel economy for all passenger vehicles, vans, light trucks and SUVs that a company makes must equal what a current Smart Fortwo gets in 10 years or the company faces a fine of $5.50 for each tenth of a mile per gallon it is under the requirement.  Reaching this requirement will mean a few things:
  1. Vehicles will have to be lighter but equally safe.  Vehicles will decrease in size and use exotic and expensive materials to keep weight down.  The cost will be passed on to the consumer.
  2. Vehicles will have to have more efficient engines.  Average horsepower will plummet and hybrids will become more commonplace; costs will be passed on to the consumer.
  3. Those that don’t meet the requirement will face fines and gas guzzler taxes; costs will be passed on to the consumer.
I think you can see my point.  The cost of vehicles will increase exponentially and for what?  To save a tiny bit of oil?  And to quickly address another myth, better fuel economy does not mean lower emissions.  Often high fuel mileage vehicles reach those numbers by cutting corners on emissions.  Reducing emissions saps power and efficiency.  Wanting low emissions and good fuel economy is like having your cake and eating it too, you’re just left with a bunch of vomit.  What would actually work?  How about a mileage tax?  Punish those who drive an insane amount of mileage instead of punishing the ones who actually want to drive fun cars.  Encourage people to drive less, have shorter commutes, use mass transit or other things that are completely unheard of in this country.  What else: mandatory gas guzzler tax for all SUVs and trucks.  Get people out of monster vehicles that have no practical purpose and into smaller vehicles that are more efficient simply because they are lighter and more aerodynamic.  If we kill SUVs and trucks, corporate average fuel economy will skyrocket.

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